How The Polls Are Being Used As A Weapon

We have some ridiculous polls out there that show Hillary up by 10 points, another 12 points and still another by 14 points. We have rarely ever seen in the modern era a Presidency won by 10 points or more. Five points yes, ten points no. These are outlier polls that are deliberately skewed to favor Hillary because these news organizations are in the bag for Hillary.

How they do it is by oversampling Democrats. And by oversampling the higher economic strata. Blue Collar workers, the basis fo the Trump vote, in undersampled. So let’s say a poll samples 1000 people. It will poll 500 Democrats, 400 Republicans and 100 Independents. That’s how you get Hillary up by 14.

There are other polls that do not allow this hanky panky and guess what? They show the race dead even or Trump up by 2.

The real harm is done when you take the Politico average of all polls. With a +14 for Hillary that brings the average to plus 6 for her. But the average is not the truth when you are factoring in outlier polls that are bogus.

LIBERAL MEDIA POLLS, 'Do you think President Obama is doing a great job, a wonderful job, or an absolutely terrific job?'

LIBERAL MEDIA POLLS, ‘Do you think President Obama is doing a great job, a wonderful job, or an absolutely terrific job?’

 

Rush reports:

So if Hillary Clinton is losing support — and, look, the reason I say “if,” because look what they’re asking us to believe.  That public opinion shifts this wildly, an eight-point drop in four days, that would indicate that support for Hillary Clinton’s very soft if that can happen.  Or they were not telling the truth in the polls in the first place, which is my basic contention, that polls are used as a weapon, that polls are used to make news and to shape opinion rather than reflect it.

The recent tightening in the polls is not the result of more voters switching to Trump. It is the polls themselves reducing their oversampling of Democrats. So in that example above the sampling now looks like: 450 Democrats, 400 Republicans, 150 Independents.

The Federalist Papers reports:poll

Poll after poll shows Hillary Clinton leading.

Clinton up by four points.

Hillary up by six points.

Clinton leads by 6 points, is the latest headline from The Washington Post.

 

But these polls – most of them – have huge problems: They’re oversampling Democrats.

This happened a couple of days ago in Arizona, a state that has more Republicans than Democrats, but whose poll had many, many more Democrats polled.

The story for the poll starts out pretending that everything is perfectly legitimate:

With 12 days to go, Hillary Clinton holds a six-point edge over Donald Trump among an electorate fixated on the campaign and nervous about their candidate losing, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll.

Then it shows a graphic showing just how far ahead Hillary is. See? Hillary’s line is in orange and Trump’s is in gray. She mustbe winning.

But there’s a problem with the poll – like with so many other polls that have come out recently … they’re conveniently asking many more Democrats than Republicans.

Here’s a link to their methodology (they have to publish this if they’re going to pretend they’re legitimate).

If you look at page 7, you’ll see exactly who they’re polling.

Of the 1,135 people they polled, 36 percent identify as Democrats and just 29 percent as Republicans.

This is bad enough, but they also have 29 percent self-declared “independents” answering the poll. How do independents vote? Gee? Who knows? The pollsters do…

Now, they have to justify the fact that there are so many more Democrats than Republicans at the polls (and of course, there are simply not 29 percent of “independents” going to the polls. They’re going to choose a Republican or a Democrat, except for the tiny percent who will choose a third-party candidate.

So here’s the paragraph justifying their methodology:

This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted to correct for differential probabilities of selection among individuals who are landline-only, cell phone-only or dual users. Results are also weighted match the demographic makeup of the population by sex, region, age, education and race/ethnicity according to the latest Current Population Survey March Social and Economic Supplement by age, race/ethnicity, sex and education. Party ID was weighted to the average of the most recent Post-ABC surveys.

Did you understand that? That’s okay, because they do. And they want you to trust them.

The only poll that counts is the one that you are going to participate in on Nov. 8, and they don’t get to “over sample” or “account for deviations.” They count the votes.

So make sure your vote is counted.

American Thinker reports:

The Visual Guide to Disputing Media Polling

To believe recent mainstream media polling releases, one would have to suspend reality enough to believe that John Podesta’s email leaks, the ongoing Project Veritas video series, a world on fire, and new revelations about Obamacare are driving the public to embrace Hillary Clinton as never before.  Things are apparently so good for the former first lady that ABC has her with a 12-point lead, a margin not seen in a presidential election since 1984.  CNN is less confident but still has her sporting a comfortable 5-point lead.  Fox News has wavered between “too close to call” and the current 3-point edge that is contingent on her achieving President Obama’s D+7 support level from 2008, which borders on complete insanity.

The purpose of this article is to prove that the media is either lying to massively impact motivation or turnout for Trump or has absolutely no idea what the actual score is.  The media don’t care if I know what they are doing with their nonstop analysis of new “chaos” within the Trump campaign.  They are playing this sad song for the record number of independent voters who appear to be requesting ballots or voting early in battlegrounds across America.

The first clue is that in the same week, ABC and CNN have polls showing a massive lead and a comfortable lead, respectively.  These two polls are seven points apart.  Obama’s landslide win from 2008 was by a margin of 7.6%, and he still lost 22 states.  Still, the enthusiasm and novelty of his campaign, combined with the natural pendulum swing that takes place after eight years of either party in the White House, left little doubt that he would win easily.  Currently, ABC and CNN have the distance of Obama’s landslide margin between their polls.

For those keeping score at home, here is how these polls play out on a map:

5 points

Obama won re-election in 2012 by 3.9%.  The tightest red state was North Carolina, which Mitt Romney carried by 2.0%.  In the event of a five-point Clinton win, I suspect that North Carolina would be the only possible state to flip, but it wouldn’t surprise me for the map to stay identical to 2012.  In this scenario, as in 2012, Hillary is not competitive in Arizona, Georgia, or Texas, as the media indicates today.

12 points

This map should show you that the media aren’t even trying to be objective anymore.  The blue nightmare above sees the GOP holding a likely minimum of six states, and no more than 11.  At a twelve-point margin, there are no swing states.  None.  Not even second-tier swing states like Missouri, Arizona, or Georgia.  For the first time since 1996, the Democrats would have made inroads into the Deep South and would threaten some of the reddest states.

Why is this important?  The media are deliberately misleading the electorate and can’t even keep their own lies between the networks laced with a scent of historical accuracy.  Recent state polls from battlegrounds like Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and others, combined with what we already know about levels of minority support, absentee balloting, early voting turnout, and enthusiasm, indicate that Trump is ahead or neck and neck in the Electoral College.  Regardless of the final outcome, competition in these states cannot possibly correlate with a 12-point loss.  Companies that release polling like this deserve all the ridicule they will receive for compromising their integrity.

What Is the Score?

I have no idea what the popular vote margin looks like right now.  Had he managed to flip a few hundred thousand total votes in five states, Romney could have won the Electoral College and lost the popular vote by over 3.0%.  Obama ran up his popular vote margin in California and New York.  Polling is accurate only if it can accurately forecast turnout.  If the electorate turns out to be D+8 or D+11, as many of the recent media polls have predicted in their efforts to mislead the electorate, then yes, Trump is finished.  However, record primary turnout, DemExit (the refusal of Sanders supporters to support Clinton), minority and independent support levels, and finally the constant torrent of scandals do not support electorate predictions more favorable to Democrats than Obama received.  With all of that said, I feel that this map is not a reach in the least:

This election will either be tight in favor of either candidate or will be a blowout in favor of Trump.  For the reasons stated above and backed up with maps, I do not anticipate Trump being steamrolled.

Ohio is the key.  Even the mainstream media seems to credit Trump with being up by at least four points there, while still expecting us to believe in a national race with the candidates separated by a dozen points.  It is possible that Trump’s economic populism could realign the Rust Belt for the GOP and weaken red bastions, but I’d prefer to go with history.  Since 1964, Ohio has voted with the winner.  Going back to 1896, you’ll find an impressive bellwether record in the Buckeye State.

But wait, there’s more.  Since 1992, the year of the last map realignment, Pennsylvania has always been to the left of Ohio, and by an average of 4.9 points.  In one of the rare GOP wins of the past 24 years, it was as close as 2.5 points.  If Trump can win Ohio big enough, he will pull Pennsylvania, and potentially Michigan as well, especially if he benefits from higher black support and help from the legendary Reagan Democrats.  Florida has voted right of Ohio in five of the last six elections, and North Carolina votes right of Florida.

Do not allow the media to steal this election without a fight.

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