We have some ridiculous polls out there that show Hillary up by 10 points, another 12 points and still another by 14 points. We have rarely ever seen in the modern era a Presidency won by 10 points or more. Five points yes, ten points no. These are outlier polls that are deliberately skewed to favor Hillary because these news organizations are in the bag for Hillary.
How they do it is by oversampling Democrats. And by oversampling the higher economic strata. Blue Collar workers, the basis fo the Trump vote, in undersampled. So let’s say a poll samples 1000 people. It will poll 500 Democrats, 400 Republicans and 100 Independents. That’s how you get Hillary up by 14.
There are other polls that do not allow this hanky panky and guess what? They show the race dead even or Trump up by 2.
The real harm is done when you take the Politico average of all polls. With a +14 for Hillary that brings the average to plus 6 for her. But the average is not the truth when you are factoring in outlier polls that are bogus.
So if Hillary Clinton is losing support — and, look, the reason I say “if,” because look what they’re asking us to believe. That public opinion shifts this wildly, an eight-point drop in four days, that would indicate that support for Hillary Clinton’s very soft if that can happen. Or they were not telling the truth in the polls in the first place, which is my basic contention, that polls are used as a weapon, that polls are used to make news and to shape opinion rather than reflect it.
The recent tightening in the polls is not the result of more voters switching to Trump. It is the polls themselves reducing their oversampling of Democrats. So in that example above the sampling now looks like: 450 Democrats, 400 Republicans, 150 Independents.
Poll after poll shows Hillary Clinton leading.
Clinton up by four points.
Hillary up by six points.
Clinton leads by 6 points, is the latest headline from The Washington Post.
But these polls – most of them – have huge problems: They’re oversampling Democrats.
This happened a couple of days ago in Arizona, a state that has more Republicans than Democrats, but whose poll had many, many more Democrats polled.
The story for the poll starts out pretending that everything is perfectly legitimate:
With 12 days to go, Hillary Clinton holds a six-point edge over Donald Trump among an electorate fixated on the campaign and nervous about their candidate losing, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News Tracking Poll.
Then it shows a graphic showing just how far ahead Hillary is. See? Hillary’s line is in orange and Trump’s is in gray. She mustbe winning.
But there’s a problem with the poll – like with so many other polls that have come out recently … they’re conveniently asking many more Democrats than Republicans.
Here’s a link to their methodology (they have to publish this if they’re going to pretend they’re legitimate).
If you look at page 7, you’ll see exactly who they’re polling.
Of the 1,135 people they polled, 36 percent identify as Democrats and just 29 percent as Republicans.
This is bad enough, but they also have 29 percent self-declared “independents” answering the poll. How do independents vote? Gee? Who knows? The pollsters do…
Now, they have to justify the fact that there are so many more Democrats than Republicans at the polls (and of course, there are simply not 29 percent of “independents” going to the polls. They’re going to choose a Republican or a Democrat, except for the tiny percent who will choose a third-party candidate.
So here’s the paragraph justifying their methodology:
This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted to correct for differential probabilities of selection among individuals who are landline-only, cell phone-only or dual users. Results are also weighted match the demographic makeup of the population by sex, region, age, education and race/ethnicity according to the latest Current Population Survey March Social and Economic Supplement by age, race/ethnicity, sex and education. Party ID was weighted to the average of the most recent Post-ABC surveys.
Did you understand that? That’s okay, because they do. And they want you to trust them.
The only poll that counts is the one that you are going to participate in on Nov. 8, and they don’t get to “over sample” or “account for deviations.” They count the votes.
So make sure your vote is counted.